Free shipping over $100: average order fell from $192 to $155
Test run byMarketingExperimentsResearch publisher
Commentary byLiftArchiveOur analysis, not theirsOffering free shipping on orders over $100 cut a merchant's average order from $192.17 to $154.70 during a two-week promotion.
MarketingExperiments (MECLABS) reported the result in a research brief on shipping charges.
It was a before/after comparison, not a split test, but the lesson is clear: the threshold sat far below what customers already spent.
- Average order value: $192.17 before, $154.70 during the promotion, a drop of about 19.5%.
- Orders, revenue and conversion rate were not reported, so we can't say whether more people bought.
- Verdict: a loss on average order value, measured before and after rather than in a split test.
Control
Normal shipping charges, with an average order of $192.17.
Variant
Free shipping on every order over $100, offered for two weeks.
Why it likely lost
Our reading of the result, not the practitioner's claim.
- A $100 threshold was well under the typical order, so most customers already qualified and had no reason to add more.
- Shoppers who might have bought more may have aimed for just over the threshold instead.
- The brief's advice is to set the threshold a little above the average order, so it nudges people up rather than down.
Caveats: This is a before/after comparison over a two-week promotion, not a split test, so seasonality or traffic changes could play a part. The data is from around 2004.
Who ran it
MarketingExperiments ran this test for an online merchant with a $192 average order and published the results (MarketingExperiments). The numbers are theirs; the summary and commentary on this page are ours.
Read the original case study on MarketingExperiments →
How to run this test on your store
- Hypothesis
- If we set the free-shipping threshold slightly above our current average order, then average order value will rise because shoppers add a little more to qualify.
- Primary metric
- Average order value
- Guardrails
- Conversion rate
- Gross margin after shipping costs
- Revenue per visitor
- Who should test it
- Stores with a steady average order and shipping costs that matter to margin. If your threshold would be far above most orders, it may not motivate anyone.
Questions
How do I pick a free shipping threshold?
The source suggests a round number that is just a bit above your average order, checked against your margin and shipping cost.
Setting it below the average order, as here, can lower order size.
Can free shipping lower average order value?
Yes. In this case the average order fell from $192.17 to $154.70 when the threshold was set at $100.
What if the threshold is too high?
The same brief describes a health merchant with an average order under $50 who set the threshold at $250. In five weeks, no order qualified.
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