Exit-intent discount sign-up vs content redirect popup: +4% AOV
Test run byBlend CommerceCRO agency
Commentary byLiftArchiveOur analysis, not theirsReplacing an exit-intent popup that redirected visitors to content with one offering a discount for an email sign-up raised average order value by 4%.
Blend Commerce ran this A/B test for a plants brand.
Conversion rate rose 2.9%, and clicks on the popup button rose 37%.
- Average order value: +4%.
- Conversion rate: +2.9%, a modest lift.
- Popup button clicks: +37%, and closes of the popup fell 3%, so more people engaged with the offer.
- Average purchase revenue per user: +2%.
The change
The exit popup swaps a content redirect for an email sign-up with a discount.
Simplified mockup drawn by LiftArchive from the shared screenshots.
Control
When visitors moved to leave, a popup appeared that pointed them to relevant content on the site.
Variant
The exit-intent popup instead offered a discount in return for signing up to the email list.
Why it likely won
Our reading of the result, not the practitioner's claim.
- A discount gives a leaving visitor a concrete reason to stay. A content link asks for more time and gives little back.
- The sign-up builds the email list, which gives the brand a second chance to sell after the visit.
- The AOV lift is harder to explain. The discount may have made a bigger basket feel affordable, but the source does not say.
Caveats: Blend Commerce does not share sample size, test length or confidence. The source frames the gains as metrics for these users, so it is unclear whether they cover all visitors or only those who saw the popup.
Who ran it
Blend Commerce ran this test for a plants brand and published the results (Blend Commerce A/B test). The numbers are theirs; the summary and commentary on this page are ours.
Read the original case study on Blend Commerce →
How to run this test on your store
- Hypothesis
- If we replace a content-redirect exit popup with a discount-for-email sign-up, then more leaving visitors will buy because the offer gives them a reason to complete the order now.
- Primary metric
- Conversion rate
- Guardrails
- Average order value
- Gross margin per order after the discount
- Email sign-up rate
- Who should test it
- Stores that have an exit popup that doesn't capture emails, and can afford a small first-order discount. It may not suit premium brands that avoid discounting, or stores where most buyers already know the discount code exists.
Questions
Do exit-intent popups work?
They can. In this test, the type of offer mattered: a discount sign-up beat a content redirect on conversion, order value and clicks.
Will a discount popup lower my order value?
Not in this test, where AOV rose 4%.
Still, track margin after the discount, not just revenue.
What should an exit popup offer?
Something with clear value in exchange for the email, such as a first-order discount.
A link to more content is a weaker reason to stay.
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