$9.49 shipping fee vs control: +43.81% revenue per visitor
Test run byDave DiederenSyntra Labs
Commentary byLiftArchiveOur analysis, not theirsA $9.49 shipping fee lifted revenue per visitor by 43.81% against the control in Dave Diederen's test of shipping prices. It also raised conversion rate by 23.40% and order value by 16.54%. The test compared four arms, and its ranges were very wide.
- Revenue per visitor at $9.49: +43.81% ($3.41 to $4.90). The range ran from -29% to +192%, so this is far from certain.
- Conversion rate at $9.49: +23.40% (0.99% to 1.22%).
- Average order value at $9.49: +16.54% ($343.47 to $400.28).
- $9 lost to control: 0.79% conversion and $2.51 revenue per visitor. Negative result.
- $10 had a higher revenue per visitor ($3.89) than control but a lower conversion rate (0.88%), and the highest order value at $442.72. Profit was not measured.
The change
Only the shipping fee changed; $9.49 was the best of three tested prices.
Simplified mockup drawn by LiftArchive from the shared screenshots.
Control
The store's existing shipping price. The post doesn't say what that price was.
Variant
Three alternative shipping fees were tested: $9, $9.49 and $10. The $9.49 fee performed best.
Why it likely won
Our reading of the result, not the practitioner's claim.
- a precise price like $9.49 may look like a real cost being passed on, not a round fee added for profit.
- the gap between $9 and $9.49 is too large to be explained by 49 cents alone. Random noise from a small number of orders is a likely factor.
- with orders around $350, shipping is a small share of the total, so price shifts may change who buys more than how many.
Caveats: Conversion rates near 1% and very wide ranges point to a small number of orders, so treat this as a lead to retest, not a proven price. The control fee, sample size and duration were not shared.
Who ran it
Dave Diederen (@DaveDiederen) shared this test on X. The numbers and screenshots are theirs.
View the original post on X
How to run this test on your store
- Hypothesis
- If we test a few nearby shipping fees against our current one, then we will find a price that earns more per visitor because shoppers react to shipping cost in non-linear ways.
- Primary metric
- Revenue per visitor
- Guardrails
- Profit per visitor
- Conversion rate
- Shipping cost per order
- Who should test it
- Stores that charge for shipping and have enough orders to split across several arms. Low-traffic stores should test just one alternative to get a clear answer.
Questions
How much should I charge for shipping?
There's no universal answer, so test it. In this store, $9.49 beat the control, $9 and $10 on revenue per visitor, but the ranges were very wide.
Can a higher shipping fee increase revenue?
It can. Here $10 earned more per visitor than the control, while $9 earned less. The control's own fee wasn't shared.
How many shipping prices should I test at once?
Dave Diederen tested three against control. More arms need more traffic, and this test's wide ranges show that risk.
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