'End your trial now' discount offer: +15–17% ARPU on average
Test run byVahe BaghdasaryanTangent (now part of Superwall)
Commentary byLiftArchiveOur analysis, not theirsOffering users a discounted plan to end their free trial right away raised ARPU by 15–17% on average across several apps.
Vahe Baghdasaryan's agency Tangent ran these tests for its subscription-app clients and calls the tactic "Swap Your Trial." Results were shared on X.
- ARPU: +15–17% on average across tests at several customers.
- For one customer, about $1.2M in added annualized revenue.
- Results for individual apps, sample sizes and how many apps were tested were not shared.
The change
A one-time discount paywall appears right after the trial starts.
Simplified mockup drawn by LiftArchive from the shared screenshots.
Control
A standard free trial. Users who started a trial saw no further offer during it.
Why it likely won
Our reading of the result, not the practitioner's claim.
- When trial-to-paid is low, locking in payment right away captures users who would have cancelled or forgotten.
- The offer appears at peak intent, seconds after the user chose to try the app.
- The tactic can backfire: if most trial users already convert, a discount just lowers what they pay. Vahe Baghdasaryan warns of this cannibalization.
Caveats: The +15–17% is an average across several customers; per-app results and test details were not shared. Vahe Baghdasaryan says it works best when trial-to-paid is below 20%.
Who ran it
Vahe Baghdasaryan ran this test. Source: Vahe Baghdasaryan on X (@vahebagdasar). The numbers are theirs; the summary and commentary on this page are ours.
How to run this test on your app
- Hypothesis
- If we offer a discounted paid plan right after a user starts a free trial, then ARPU will rise because we convert users who would have cancelled before the trial ended.
- Primary metric
- ARPU
- Guardrails
- Trial-to-paid
- Refund rate
- Renewal rate at year 2
- Who should test it
- Apps with a free trial and trial-to-paid under 20%. Skip it or test carefully if your trial-to-paid is already strong.
Questions
When should the offer appear?
Immediately after the user starts the trial, according to the post.
Will this hurt my trial-to-paid?
It can if your trial already converts well.
The tactic is aimed at apps with trial-to-paid under 20%.
How big should the discount be?
The example paywall shows 33% off. Per-test discount sizes were not shared, so test your own.