$99 free shipping threshold instead of free US shipping: +17% AOV
Test run bySurefootCRO agency
Commentary byLiftArchiveOur analysis, not theirsReplacing free shipping on all US orders with free shipping only on orders of $99 or more lifted Peak Design's average order value by 17%.
Fewer orders came in under $99, but net revenue was not statistically different from before.
Surefoot ran this as a 26-day before-and-after comparison, not a split test, and published it as a case study.
- Average order value: up 17%.
- Orders above $99: up 16%.
- Total transactions dipped, all from orders under $99. This is a real trade-off, not a free win.
- Net transaction revenue: directionally up but not statistically different from before, so treat it as flat.
- Main business win: hundreds of thousands of dollars a year in shipping costs no longer subsidized.
The change
Free shipping on every US order became free shipping on orders of $99 or more
Simplified mockup drawn by LiftArchive from the shared screenshots.
Control
Free shipping on every US order, with no minimum.
Variant
Free US shipping only on orders of $99 or more. Smaller orders paid for shipping.
Why it likely won
Our reading of the result, not the practitioner's claim.
- Surefoot's analysis found that the larger part of the shipping loss came from US orders, not international ones, so the threshold went where the cost was.
- Shoppers close to $99 had a reason to add to their order. The case study notes cart sizes barely changed; what moved was the share of orders above the line.
- Peak Design sells premium gear, so many orders were likely already near $99. A lower-priced store might see more lost orders.
Caveats: Before-and-after comparison on 100% of US traffic for 26 days, with no promotions running, then modelled. Not a split test. The goal was cutting shipping cost, not raising revenue.
Who ran it
Surefoot ran this test for Peak Design and published the results (Surefoot case study). The numbers are theirs; the summary and commentary on this page are ours.
Read the original case study on Surefoot →
How to run this test on your store
- Hypothesis
- If we offer free shipping only above a set order value, then average order value will rise and shipping costs will fall without hurting net revenue because shoppers near the line will add items while small orders pay their own way.
- Primary metric
- Net revenue after shipping costs
- Guardrails
- Total transactions
- Conversion rate
- Share of orders below the threshold
- Who should test it
- Stores losing money on free shipping, with a typical order value near the planned threshold. Set the threshold from your own order data. Stores that compete mainly on free shipping, or sell mostly low-priced items, may lose too many orders.
Questions
Will a free shipping threshold hurt conversion?
It can lower the number of orders. Peak Design saw fewer orders under $99, but higher order values made up for it, and net revenue held steady.
How do I pick a free shipping threshold?
Use your own order data. Peak Design modelled where a threshold would recoup the most shipping cost while protecting order value, then tested $99.
Can I A/B test shipping policies?
Yes, though many stores use before-and-after tests because showing different shipping prices to different visitors can confuse people.
If you do pre/post, pick a window without promotions.
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