'Only 5,000 copies' on a free DVD offer: +508% orders
Test run byMarketingExperimentsResearch publisher
Commentary byLiftArchiveOur analysis, not theirsTelling subscribers only 5,000 copies of a free child-safety DVD were available lifted the order rate from 0.0189% to 0.115%, a 508% increase.
MECLABS ran this for its research partner National Alert Registry, published on MarketingExperiments.
It was a bundled change sent as a second email, not a simultaneous split test.
- Order rate rose from 0.0189% to 0.115%, a 508% relative increase.
- That meant 768 DVDs shipped versus 14 for the first email.
- Several variables changed at once, and MECLABS says the lift can't all be credited to the 5,000 message.
- The two emails went out at different times, so timing and list fatigue may also play a part.
The change
Variant states that only 5,000 copies are available
Simplified mockup drawn by LiftArchive from the shared screenshots.
Control
An email offered subscribers a free child-safety DVD, paying only shipping and handling, with no mention of how many copies existed.
Variant
A second email and landing page said only 5,000 copies were available and suggested people get theirs before they ran out. Several other things changed too.
Why it likely won
Our reading of the result, not the practitioner's claim.
- A stated, real limit gave readers a reason to act now rather than later.
- The message was calm, with no countdown or false claims, so it may have felt credible.
- Other changes in the second email and landing page likely added to the lift.
Caveats: This was a cluster test with several changes, sent as separate emails rather than a simultaneous split, so it is closer to a before-and-after comparison. The data is from 2006 and the offer was a free item to an existing subscriber list.
Who ran it
MarketingExperiments ran this test and published the results (MarketingExperiments). The numbers are theirs; the summary and commentary on this page are ours.
Read the original case study on MarketingExperiments →
How to run this test on your site
- Hypothesis
- If we state a real limit on how many free items are available, then more subscribers will claim one because they won't want to miss out.
- Primary metric
- Offer claim or order rate
- Guardrails
- Unsubscribe rate
- Complaint or spam rate
- Trust signals such as replies or refund requests
- Who should test it
- Lead-gen businesses and subscription services with a genuinely limited offer, such as a print run or event seats. Don't use it if the limit isn't real; audiences spot fake scarcity and it erodes trust.
Questions
Does scarcity messaging work for free offers?
It can. In this test, stating a real limit of 5,000 copies came with a large rise in orders, though other changes were made at the same time.
Is fake scarcity risky?
Yes. If people learn a limit isn't real, you lose credibility.
The team here avoided countdowns and claims the item would never return.