Subscription-first buy box for cold traffic lost to one-time by 18%
Commentary byLiftArchiveOur analysis, not theirsA buy box that pushed subscription lost to the standard one-time offer by 18%, and the one-time offer also brought higher order value.
Mojo Country Club ran this test in-house on its landing page for cold Meta ad traffic, and it was published as a Replo case study. The test ran for 24 days.
- Conversion: the one-time offer beat the subscription-heavy buy box by 18%. This is a loss for the subscription variant.
- Average order value was also higher with the one-time offer. The exact figure was not shared.
- The brand now shows first-time buyers a buy-two discount and saves subscription offers for returning customers.
The change
The variant puts the subscription option ahead of the one-time purchase.
Simplified mockup drawn by LiftArchive from the shared screenshots.
Control
The landing page buy box led with a standard one-time purchase offer.
Variant
The buy box was weighted toward a subscription purchase.
Why it likely lost
Our reading of the result, not the practitioner's claim.
- Cold traffic from ads hasn't tried the product, so committing to repeat orders feels like a big ask.
- A one-time offer with a multi-buy discount pushes order value up, while subscriptions often sell one unit at a lower price.
- Subscriptions may work better after a first purchase proves the product works.
Caveats: The test covered cold Meta traffic only, and the sample size and confidence level were not shared. Effects on lifetime value were not measured.
Who ran it
Mojo Country Club ran this test for Mojo Country Club and published the results (Replo case study). The numbers are theirs; the summary and commentary on this page are ours.
Read the original case study on Mojo Country Club →
How to run this test on your store
- Hypothesis
- If we lead the buy box with a one-time offer for first-time visitors, then conversion rate will rise because new shoppers don't want to commit to a subscription before trying the product.
- Primary metric
- Conversion rate
- Guardrails
- Average order value
- Subscription take rate
- 90-day repeat purchase rate
- Who should test it
- Consumable brands buying cold paid social traffic to a landing page. It may not apply to returning customers or to products that people already know and reorder.
Questions
Should I push subscriptions on first-time buyers?
For cold ad traffic, this test suggests not.
The one-time offer won by 18% and brought a higher order value.
When should a brand offer subscriptions?
Mojo Country Club now shows subscription-first pages to returning customers who already know the product.
Does a subscription discount raise conversion rate?
Not always. New shoppers may still prefer a one-time purchase, so test it by traffic source.
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