'In Stock' message instead of low-stock alert: +16.78% RPV
Test run byDave DiederenSyntra Labs
Commentary byLiftArchiveOur analysis, not theirsDave Diederen showed shoppers an 'In Stock' message on product pages, and revenue per visitor rose 16.78% against control. Two urgency versions, a low-stock alert and a countdown, each came in about 2% below control. The calm message won on conversion and order value too.
- Revenue per visitor (In Stock): $1.16 to $1.35 (+16.78%), with a 91% probability of beating control. The range ran from -8% to +48%, so it is not a sure win.
- Conversion rate (In Stock): 1.37% to 1.44% (+5.72%). A modest rise in buyers.
- Average order value (In Stock): $84.69 to $93.55 (+10.46%). Most of the revenue gain came from bigger orders.
- Low-stock alert: RPV -2%, AOV $82.81. Urgency countdown: RPV -2.1%, AOV $79.58. Both came in slightly below control.
The change
Calm 'In Stock' message added instead of low-stock urgency
Simplified mockup drawn by LiftArchive from the shared screenshots.
Control
The product page without the stock messages being tested. The exact control copy was not shown.
Variant
Three versions ran against control: an 'In Stock' message, an orange low-stock ('almost out') alert, and an urgency countdown. In Stock was the winner.
Why it likely won
Our reading of the result, not the practitioner's claim.
- 'almost out' can make shoppers worry the order might fail or a return could be harder, so some hesitate.
- shoppers who feel there is no rush may browse more sizes, colors or add-ons, which fits the higher AOV.
- 'In Stock' signals a reliable store, which matters most for new visitors and pricier items.
Caveats: Visitor and order counts and the test length were not shown, and every confidence range includes zero. Results come from a single Shopify brand.
Who ran it
Dave Diederen (@DaveDiederen) shared this test on X. The numbers and screenshots are theirs.
View the original post on X
How to run this test on your store
- Hypothesis
- If we show a clear 'In Stock' message instead of low-stock urgency, then revenue per visitor will rise because shoppers feel safe to buy and browse more.
- Primary metric
- Revenue per visitor
- Guardrails
- Average order value
- Conversion rate
- Stockout or oversell rate
- Who should test it
- Stores selling considered or gift purchases, or any store currently using low-stock alerts on most products. Low-stock urgency may still work for cheap impulse buys or genuinely limited drops.
Questions
Does low-stock messaging increase sales?
Not in this test. The low-stock alert came in about 2% below control on revenue per visitor, while a plain 'In Stock' message was 16.78% above.
Should I show 'In Stock' on product pages?
Here it raised conversion, order value and revenue per visitor. It is a cheap message to test against whatever you show now.
Why would scarcity lower average order value?
Dave Diederen's view is that shoppers rush to lock in the item and skip browsing for extras. Orders with the low-stock alert averaged $82.81 against $93.55 for In Stock.
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