Authentic scarcity message on product pages: +$46,900/month
Test run byOliver KenyonConversionwise
Commentary byLiftArchiveOur analysis, not theirsAdding honest scarcity messaging to product pages was forecast to add $46,900 a month. Oliver Kenyon ran this test for a brand whose whole model is built on limited stock and supply. Both revenue per user and conversion rate went up, though exact percentages were not shared.
- Forecasted gain of $46,900 a month, or $562,800 a year.
- Revenue per user rose, per the post, with no figure given.
- Conversion rate rose as well, again without a percentage.
- No sample size or test duration was shared.
The change
A scarcity warning is added below the payment icons.
Simplified mockup drawn by LiftArchive from the shared screenshots.
Control
Product pages already had a Sold Out button and a restock sign-up link. Nothing explained that sold-out items might never return.
Variant
A warning box was added below the payment icons saying, in short, that once an item sells out it may not be produced again. Availability and restock messaging were made clearer, in language that matched the brand's tone.
Why it likely won
Our reading of the result, not the practitioner's claim.
- the scarcity was true to how the brand works, so it read as information rather than pressure.
- telling shoppers an item may not come back made waiting feel risky.
- matching the brand's tone kept the message from looking like a generic app badge.
Caveats: Results are forecasts with no percentages, sample size or duration shared. This only fits brands whose stock really is limited.
Who ran it
Oliver Kenyon (@oliverkenyon) shared this test on X. The numbers and screenshots are theirs.
View the original post on X
How to run this test on your store
- Hypothesis
- If we clearly state real stock limits on product pages, such as items that may not be produced again, then more visitors will buy now, because waiting carries a real risk of missing out.
- Primary metric
- Conversion rate
- Guardrails
- Revenue per visitor
- Return rate
- Restock sign-ups
- Who should test it
- Brands that sell limited runs, drops or one-off batches. Do not use it if your stock is not truly limited, since fake scarcity harms trust.
Questions
Does scarcity messaging work on product pages?
It did here, with a forecasted gain of $46,900 a month. The brand's stock really was limited, which made the message honest.
What makes scarcity messaging authentic?
It reflects a real constraint and uses the brand's own voice. In this test the copy explained that sold-out items might not be made again.
Should I add a restock notification next to a sold-out button?
This brand paired sold-out states with a restock sign-up and clearer availability messaging. That gives shoppers who miss out a way to stay in touch.
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