Honest scarcity note on product page: $44,751/month forecast
Test run byOliver KenyonConversionwise
Commentary byLiftArchiveOur analysis, not theirsAdding a short, honest scarcity message under the buy button on product pages produced a forecasted $44,751 per month. Oliver Kenyon ran this for a brand built around limited runs, and reports a higher add to cart rate and revenue per user.
- Revenue: a forecasted $44,751 per month. This is a projection, not measured revenue.
- Add to cart rate went up. The size of the lift was not shared.
- Revenue per user went up. The size of the lift was not shared.
- Conversion rate, AOV and sample size were not shared.
The change
Variant adds an honest scarcity note below the buy button
Simplified mockup drawn by LiftArchive from the shared screenshots.
Control
The product page showed the gallery, title, reviews, price, delivery estimate and the main button, with no message about limited stock.
Variant
A small boxed note with a warning icon was added below the button and payment icons. It said that once an item sells out, there's no promise it will be made again.
Why it likely won
Our reading of the result, not the practitioner's claim.
- the message was true to how the brand works, so it added urgency without feeling like a sales trick.
- it gave shoppers a reason to buy now instead of saving the item for later.
- the soft wording and small box kept the page feeling premium rather than pushy.
Caveats: Only a forecasted dollar figure was shared, with no percentage lift, sample size or duration. The result depends on the scarcity being real for this brand.
Who ran it
Oliver Kenyon (@oliverkenyon) shared this test on X. The numbers and screenshots are theirs.
View the original post on X
How to run this test on your store
- Hypothesis
- If we add an honest note under the buy button that items may not be restocked, then more shoppers will add to cart, because they see a real reason not to wait.
- Primary metric
- Revenue per visitor
- Guardrails
- Add to cart rate
- Refund rate
- Back-in-stock signups
- Who should test it
- Brands that genuinely sell limited runs, drops or small batches. Don't use it for products you always restock, because false scarcity erodes trust.
Questions
Does scarcity messaging increase add to cart rate?
In this test it did. A short note about limited runs, placed below the buy button, raised add to cart rate and revenue per user.
How do I write scarcity copy that doesn't feel fake?
Base it on something true about your products. Here the brand really does limited runs, and the copy simply said a restock isn't guaranteed.
Where should a scarcity message go on a product page?
Oliver Kenyon placed it just below the main button and payment icons, where shoppers look when deciding.
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