Free shipping threshold raised to $165: +6.27% profit per visitor
Test run byDave DiederenSyntra Labs
Commentary byLiftArchiveOur analysis, not theirsRaising the free shipping threshold to $165 lifted profit per visitor by 6.27% in an early read. Dave Diederen tested $125 and $165 against the store's existing threshold, and only the $165 arm came out ahead.
- Profit per visitor: +6.27% for $165 (A$1.74 to A$1.84), estimated at A$47,848 more per month.
- Conversion rate: +6.29% for $165 (3.12% to 3.32%), an estimated 863 more orders a month.
- Revenue per visitor: +5.79% for $165 (A$3.00 to A$3.17).
- Average order value: no change (A$96.09 vs A$95.64). Shoppers didn't add more to reach the higher threshold yet.
- The $125 arm did worse than control on conversion, revenue and profit per visitor (for example A$2.85 vs A$3.00 revenue per visitor).
The change
Variant raises the free shipping threshold to $165
Simplified mockup drawn by LiftArchive from the shared screenshots.
Control
The store's existing free shipping threshold. The post and dashboard don't state what it was.
Variant
Two arms raised the free shipping threshold, one to $125 and one to $165. The dashboard reports results in Australian dollars.
Why it likely won
Our reading of the result, not the practitioner's claim.
- a higher threshold may set a higher spending anchor in the shopper's mind. The flat AOV means this isn't proven here.
- collecting shipping fees on more orders could explain why profit rose slightly more than revenue.
- the conversion lift with flat AOV is hard to explain from the threshold alone, so it may partly be noise at this sample size.
Caveats: The test started on Nov 16, 2025 with no end date, so it was still running when shared, after about 1,343 orders across 42,246 visitors. The ranges were wide (-12% to +27% on profit per visitor), so the result isn't settled.
Who ran it
Dave Diederen (@DaveDiederen) shared this test on X. The numbers and screenshots are theirs.
View the original post on X
How to run this test on your store
- Hypothesis
- If we raise our free shipping threshold, then profit per visitor will rise, because more orders pay for shipping and some shoppers add items to qualify.
- Primary metric
- Profit per visitor
- Guardrails
- Conversion rate
- Average order value
- Share of orders that qualify for free shipping
- Who should test it
- Stores with an AOV near or above their current threshold and decent margins, testing several levels at once. It's risky if shoppers are very price-sensitive or competitors offer lower thresholds.
Questions
What should my free shipping threshold be?
Test several levels. In this test, $165 beat the existing threshold, while $125 did worse, so the right number isn't obvious.
Does a higher free shipping threshold raise average order value?
Not here. AOV stayed flat, and Dave Diederen notes no cart upsells or qualifying prompts were added yet.
Can raising the free shipping threshold hurt conversion?
It can, but in this early read the $165 threshold had a slightly higher conversion rate than control. The result was still uncertain.
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@oliverkenyon@oliverkenyon@oliverkenyon@oliverkenyon@oliverkenyon@DaveDiederen