Turning on Shop Pay with pay-later lifted conversion above 1%
Test run byDave DiederenSyntra Labs
Commentary byLiftArchiveOur analysis, not theirsDave Diederen turned on Shop Pay with buy-now-pay-later for a Shopify store, and conversion moved from below 1% to above 1%. The dashboard shows 1.21% the next day, up 98% on the day before. This was a before/after comparison, not a split test.
- Conversion rate: 1.21% on Jul 31, 2025, up 98% on Jul 30. The store crossed the 1% line it had been stuck under.
- Orders: up 70% day over day. Order counts themselves were hidden.
- According to the practitioner, conversion stayed above 1% afterward. No longer-term data was shown.
The change
Shop Pay with buy-now-pay-later switched on at checkout
Simplified mockup drawn by LiftArchive from the shared screenshots.
Control
The store had sat below 1% conversion rate for months, even after its home, collection and product pages were rebuilt. It did not offer buy-now-pay-later.
Variant
Shop Pay was switched on, which gave shoppers a pay-later option at checkout. Nothing else was reported as changing at the same time.
Why it likely won
Our reading of the result, not the practitioner's claim.
- this audience wanted to split payments, and without that option some left.
- Shop Pay also speeds up checkout for returning Shop users, which can help separately from pay-later.
- page redesigns can't fix a missing payment method if that's the real blocker.
Caveats: This compares one day with the day before, so daily swings, promos or traffic mix could explain part of the jump. There was no control group, and order and visitor counts were not shared.
Who ran it
Dave Diederen (@DaveDiederen) shared this test on X. The numbers and screenshots are theirs.
View the original post on X
How to run this test on your store
- Hypothesis
- If we offer Shop Pay with buy-now-pay-later, then conversion rate will rise because shoppers who want to spread payments can complete the order.
- Primary metric
- Conversion rate
- Guardrails
- Average order value
- Payment processing fees as % of revenue
- Refund and chargeback rate
- Who should test it
- Shopify stores with mid to high prices that don't yet offer pay-later or accelerated checkout. If you already offer them, there may be little left to gain. Payment methods are hard to split test, so compare matched periods over several weeks.
Questions
Does buy now pay later increase conversion rate?
For this store, turning it on through Shop Pay coincided with conversion rising from under 1% to 1.21%. It was a before/after check, so the true lift is unclear.
Should Shopify stores turn on Shop Pay?
This store had been stuck under 1% conversion despite a page rebuild, and Shop Pay was the change that moved it. It is a low-effort switch worth checking.
Can you A/B test payment methods?
It is hard on most platforms, which is why this result is a before/after comparison. Comparing several weeks before and after gives a fairer read than one day.
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