Buy 2 Get 1 Free vs 2-pack at same price: -52.38% revenue/visitor
Test run byMilos
Commentary byLiftArchiveOur analysis, not theirsChanging a $240 2-pack into a $240 "Buy 2 Get 1 Free" offer cut revenue per visitor by 52.38% in a test Milos ran. Conversion rate fell 51.36% and profit per visitor fell 54.01%, even though the new offer gave shoppers an extra unit for the same price.
- Conversion rate: -51.36% (1.47% to 0.72%). About half as many visitors bought. The range shown is -73% to -10%, so the drop is clear.
- Revenue per visitor: -52.38% ($2.99 to $1.42). A large loss, though the range of -80% to +13% is wide.
- Profit per visitor (the main metric): -54.01% ($2.14 to $0.98). Giving away a third unit also cut margin on each bundle sold.
- Average order value: -2.10% ($203.01 to $198.75). Basically flat, so the loss came from far fewer orders.
- Estimated impact in the testing tool: about 506 fewer orders and $104,679 less revenue a month. This is a negative result.
The change
The variant reframes the $240 2-pack as Buy 2 Get 1 Free at the same price.
Simplified mockup drawn by LiftArchive from the shared screenshots.
Control
Two options: a 1-pack at $155 and a 2-pack at $240.
Variant
A 1-pack at $155 and "Buy 2 Get 1 Free" at $240, so the bundle included three units for the same price as the old 2-pack.
Why it likely lost
Our reading of the result, not the practitioner's claim.
- a free third unit may have made the offer look too good to be true, raising doubts about quality or real value.
- many buyers may not want three units, so the bigger bundle felt less relevant than a simple pair.
- the drop was large on conversion, not just on bundle take-up, which suggests the new offer changed how people saw the whole page.
Caveats: Sample size and test length were not shared, and the post does not name the product or store. The revenue range includes a small gain, though the conversion drop is clear.
Who ran it
Milos (@CROguy_) shared this test on X. The numbers and screenshots are theirs.
View the original post on X
How to run this test on your store
- Hypothesis
- If we frame our bundle as a 2-pack instead of Buy 2 Get 1 Free at the same price, then conversion will hold or rise because the offer feels simpler and more believable.
- Primary metric
- Profit per visitor
- Guardrails
- Conversion rate
- Average order value
- Bundle take rate
- Who should test it
- Any store about to launch a "free unit" bundle, especially on premium-priced products. A free extra unit may work better for consumables people use up fast, so test before rolling it out.
Questions
Does Buy 2 Get 1 Free beat a 2-pack offer?
Not in this test. At the same $240 price, Buy 2 Get 1 Free cut conversion by 51.36% and revenue per visitor by 52.38%.
Why would a better deal convert worse?
The post does not say. Our reading is that a free unit can look less believable or give people more product than they want.
Should I test bundle offers before launching them?
Yes. Milos's point is that an offer that looks like an obvious win can lose badly, and without a test you would only see sales drop.
Similar tests
@oliverkenyon@oliverkenyon@oliverkenyon@oliverkenyon@oliverkenyon@oliverkenyon