# $99 free shipping threshold instead of free US shipping: +17% AOV

- Outcome: Won
- Page type: Site-wide (Ecommerce)
- Elements: Free shipping thresholds & shipping price, Shipping & delivery messaging
- Test run by: [Surefoot](https://liftarchive.com/practitioners/surefoot/)
- Commentary by: LiftArchive (our analysis, not theirs)
- Original source: https://surefoot.me/case-studies/peak-design
- Page: https://liftarchive.com/test/peak-design-99-free-shipping-threshold/

Replacing free shipping on all US orders with free shipping only on orders of $99 or more lifted Peak Design's average order value by 17%. Fewer orders came in under $99, but net revenue was not statistically different from before. Surefoot ran this as a 26-day before-and-after comparison, not a split test, and published it as a case study.

## Result

**+17% AOV**

- Average order value: up 17%.
- Orders above $99: up 16%.
- Total transactions dipped, all from orders under $99. This is a real trade-off, not a free win.
- Net transaction revenue: directionally up but not statistically different from before, so treat it as flat.
- Main business win: hundreds of thousands of dollars a year in shipping costs no longer subsidized.

## Control

Free shipping on every US order, with no minimum.

## Variant

Free US shipping only on orders of $99 or more. Smaller orders paid for shipping.

## Why it likely won (our reading)

- Surefoot's analysis found that the larger part of the shipping loss came from US orders, not international ones, so the threshold went where the cost was.
- Shoppers close to $99 had a reason to add to their order. The case study notes cart sizes barely changed; what moved was the share of orders above the line.
- Peak Design sells premium gear, so many orders were likely already near $99. A lower-priced store might see more lost orders.

## Caveats

Before-and-after comparison on 100% of US traffic for 26 days, with no promotions running, then modelled. Not a split test. The goal was cutting shipping cost, not raising revenue.

## How to run this test

- Hypothesis: If we offer free shipping only above a set order value, then average order value will rise and shipping costs will fall without hurting net revenue because shoppers near the line will add items while small orders pay their own way.
- Primary metric: Net revenue after shipping costs
- Guardrail: Total transactions
- Guardrail: Conversion rate
- Guardrail: Share of orders below the threshold
- Who should test it: Stores losing money on free shipping, with a typical order value near the planned threshold. Set the threshold from your own order data. Stores that compete mainly on free shipping, or sell mostly low-priced items, may lose too many orders.

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Credit: Surefoot ran this test and owns the result. Summary and commentary by LiftArchive (https://liftarchive.com/test/peak-design-99-free-shipping-threshold/).
Usage: Free to use, quote and build on, with credit and a link: name the practitioner or organization that ran the test and link to its LiftArchive page. The results belong to the practitioners who ran and shared them; the summaries and commentary are LiftArchive's.